I tried the no-pedal ride it until it quits range test again. Temperature 1 C, pack started at 26.4 V, tires were pumped to 77 psi. It went 9.43 km in 23:17, 24.1 km/hr avg, lowest speed on the hill was 22.0 km/hr, 21.9 km/hr. This is 40% more than last time. I have no reasonable explanation for the increase. It was colder, and I was pedalling less. The battery pack has received a couple of deep discharge cycles with the lights, but that ought to (if anything) reduce its capabilities. There was less snow on the ground, however, and perhaps the tires were more inflated, and who knows, perhaps the wind was different.

It is clear that "range" is a fairly poor metric, because of its variability. The usual recommendation is that an EV should be speced have double the range that seems needed, not just to accomodate this variability, but also to accomodate changes in plans and to keep the average depth of discharge down.