Peak oil There's a nice piece in Salon drumming on the ongoing theme of peak oil. It's an old concept, which for oil is most associated with the name of 20th century Shell geologist M. King Hubbert, but which has occurred for many natural resources over the ages. The basic idea is simple: if it's a fixed resource, then initial use begins slow, as people start to understand the resource and how to extract it, accelerates as people find new uses and get better at extraction, then slows as the low hanging fruit are gone, and eventually tails off as even the most difficult sources get used. Examples range from Paleolithic hunting of the megafauna of the Americas to the trees of Easter Island to the cod of the North Atlantic (all of which are essentially energy resources). Oil is another example. It's regenerated slowly at the best of times over the millenia, and there is in fact no oil whatsoever being deposited right now. The point of peak production, when oil will never again be as plentiful, is sometimes called Hubbert's Peak. After the oil is gone, nearly gone, or too useful for making other things to justify burning for energy, there will either be a transition to other energy sources or a reduction in energy usage.

None of this is controversial. There's some debate over exactly when global oil production will peak or has peaked, and some debate as to what (if anything) should be done about it. I don't think the exact date of peak has much significance, as it will be lost in the noise of oil price fluctuations, lies and restatements (up and down) of reserves, spare capacity, etc. Some alarmists believe the reduction in energy usage will only be accomplished via a forced massive population crash, while some optimists believe free markets will efficiently manage a smooth seamless transition to other energy sources, perhaps transported around as hydrogen. For some value of "smooth", this is no doubt true, but market theory provides no assurances that transitions can be accomplished with any given level of disruption. Some foresight, leadership and planning will be required.

The original article accepts at face value Bush's self-constructed simpleton myth, and complains that he (the Texas oilman) just doesn't understand how important energy is. Really? And why, then, is the US in Iraq? Even liberals accept that it's about the crude (dude). The geological poker game has given most of the world's remaining easily extracted crude to Saudi Arabia, rich, despotic and deeply corrupt, native land of bin Laden and 17 out of 19 of the 9/11 hijackers. #2 is Iraq, which until recently was run by a delightful fellow known as Mr. Hussein. In the light of peak oil, Iraq may be seen by history and a wise and cheap investment into putting a major resource into stable democratic hands, helping to insure that the riches of the last drops of oil don't go to making the world a more dangerous place. It may be a long shot, it may have been handled incompetently, and it may take a decade or more, but hopefully Iraq will be stable enough to help smooth the transition at about the time Saudi is falling apart. And that will be a real mess, no doubt requiring significant armed intervention (against a thoroughly modern force, equipped with the finest US military hardware sold by Jimmy Carter, among other peace lovers). And wars are incredibly energy intensive. Just ask Germany during WWII, who had to become an early innovator in coal liquefaction via the Fisher-Tropsch process.

ObEBike. Kid biked to school with me following -- elementary school kids were very impressed with the motor etc. One asked "Do you need to pedal first?" Astute question, since in some places, that's a legal requirement, though Canada elected to allow either pedal-first or power-on-demand with a cutoff if brakes are applied. I'm not sure how I'd fit that cutoff, my bike was made before that law was written. Temperature -7 C, 27.7 before departing. 24.9 on arrival. Cut out well before arriving, total trip time 35 min. I'm starting to understand bike paths. They can't be thought of as thoroughfares for 30 km/hr vehicles on their way to work, but rather more like a trail map. If you go more or less over here, you'll probably be able to find a way to get over there, but don't expect it to be easy. I tried riding off-road for the high traffic bit. Much slower (especially since power had cut out) and bumpy, but maybe a win anyway. I'm starting to understand the popularity of full-suspension bikes.

Added. -8 C return, 30 min, 24.8 final, seemed fast till end, no problems.