Tom Tomorrow has a big "I told you so" section at the end of a recent web log entry. Yes, Virginia, there really was a bubble.
In coming months and years we should expect to hear:
-- that we have not yet seen the full productivity improvements to be expected from the use of PC's in business
-- that prosperity is "just around the corner"
-- that America's economy is fundamentally sound
-- that we all should have known this was going to happen, all along
Well, we did! Alan Greenspan said "irrational exuberance" in 1996. Turns out it was true: irrational exuberance caused undue escalation of asset values. It will likely take the stock market 20 years to recover a DJIA at its over-10,000 level. The collapse should stop with the DJIA in the 3,000-5,000 level, but it may fall as far as 1,000.
So what? I heard on the radio that 65% of the households in Alberta have at least one member who regularly uses the Internet. Merely 10 years ago, virtually nobody was aware of the Internet. Here's how it works: Market bubbles are how we finance infrastructure development.
It's too hot to think today -- 33 Celsius in the shade. The raspberries are hot and sweet. The radio promised a week of rain and cloudy days -- if they deliver, I'll try to be lucent.